NORFOLK - Since the Cold War ended, the Navy's fleet has dwindled by more than half, with 276 ships now prowling the world's oceans.
In Hampton Roads, the homeport fleet hovers around 90, down by nearly half since the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.
Yet, as the fleet declined, one thing hasn't: The number of private repair yards with piers, dry docks and other maintenance facilities clustered along the Elizabeth River has remained steady. Shipyards in major ports north of here, including in Baltimore and Philadelphia, have been shuttered and vacated.
Now, industry insiders wonder whether the local market could be headed for a shakeout.
"I can't imagine people not expecting that, actually," said Tom Godfrey Jr., president and chief executive officer of Colonna's Shipyard Inc. in Berkley.
With the Navy's downsizing in the 1990s, the port's five largest repair yards now employ around 2,700 workers, far fewer than their former labor forces.
Most have tried to buffer themselves by sharing work on Navy contracts and finding ways to diversify. But the industry still relies on the Navy as its No. 1 customer.
"Some of the guys I've talked to have said there are some lean times ahead, and they're not sure how they're going to fill all the holes they have out there," said Joe Carnevale, senior defense adviser for the Washington-based Shipbuilders Council of America. "It wouldn't surprise me if an adjustment was necessary."
Some point to a February episode at Metro Machine Corp., a Berkley yard, as a warning sign. The company was in a dispute with the Navy over costs to dry-dock the guided missile destroyer McFaul. After it appeared the work would be canceled, Metro issued notices to the city and state outlining plans to idle two-thirds of its 450-member work force.
Eventually, an agreement was reached for a lower price, averting the layoffs. But the situation underscored the industry's vulnerability.
"It's an illustration of a market that has shrunk to the point that a break in the stream of maintenance from a single job could interrupt a company," Godfrey said. "It's very troublesome."
Other threats loom. Among them:
Concern that the Navy will divert surface combatant ships, long the mainstay work for private yards, to Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Portsmouth to fill expected work gaps in that public yard.
"It'll take some time before things play out," said Jerry Miller, president of Earl Industries LLC, a Portsmouth yard. "There's some surprises yet to come maybe. But right now, it's pretty stable."
To ensure that combat ships are ready for far-flung missions, the Navy recognizes that keeping the repair industry healthy is in its best interest.
Still, under pressure from the Pentagon to control costs, it has pushed local shipyard executives to become more efficient.
Rear Adm. Jeffrey Brooks, director of fleet maintenance for the Navy's Norfolk-based Fleet Forces Command, said he thinks "too many companies out there have duplicative capabilities." That's a concern because it adds to overhead costs passed on to the Navy.
"The industrial base infrastructure has not gone down to the same degree that the number of ships has gone down," Brooks said, without citing local examples. "I don't believe it's the Navy's responsibility to have too much infrastructure out there - more than we need to be efficient. The Navy pays for that."
Even if the Navy reaches its 313-ship goal, "that's not going to be a significant change" in terms of work for local repair yards, Brooks said.
Shipyards that hope to remain competitive will have to change their practices, he said, including diversifying beyond Navy ships and teaming with rival yards. Otherwise, "there's going to be folks out there who probably won't have enough work to stay in business."
The ship repair business has never been easy, and the challenges these days make it tougher than ever.
That's why Wayne Thomas got out. In early 2004, his family sold Moon Engineering to Earl Industries, giving Earl a waterfront presence. Before that, in 1995, Jonathan Corp. went bankrupt and closed its Norfolk yard for lack of Navy work, the first shakeout of the post-Cold War decline.
"We were just totally burned out with worrying about defense funding and not knowing what tomorrow was going to bring," said Thomas, now a commercial business investor. "It's just a rough way to live."
Thomas called Navy ship maintenance the "stepchild" of defense spending - and an easy target for cuts.
"You're sitting there with a work force thinking you've got all this work to do, but they may not have the funding for it," Thomas said. "So let's see: Are we going to try to carry the work force for another 30 days and hope it's going to come through, or are we going to let them go?"
Money shortages and labor issues remain top concerns.
"It all starts with money," said Richard Goldbach, chairman and CEO of Metro Machine. "There's not enough of it, in our opinion, no matter how it's spread out."
The resulting feast-and-famine cycles have contributed to what some view as one of the industry's most serious challenges - r ecruiting skilled trades workers.
Shipyard workers can earn more than $40,000 a year, not counting overtime, but it's difficult to retain them "if they don't know they'll have work week to week," said Gary Brandt, president and CEO of Marine Hydraulics International Inc. "You lay a person off a second time and there's a 50-50 chance they'll be back. Lay them off a third time and they're not coming back."
Other troubles lurk. If Florida succeeds in sniping large-deck amphibious or other ships to replace the retiring aircraft carrier John Kennedy, it could be a big financial hit. Norfolk yards now hold maintenance contracts worth an estimated $900 million over five years on the amphibious ships alone.
"I'm sure they're looking for any option they can to fill the void left by the Kennedy," said Mal Branch, president of the Virginia Ship Repair Association. He is working on a report to assess potential effects.
Another worry is losing surface ships to Norfolk Naval Shipyard. The Navy is expected to juggle work to keep its four public yards busy now that the 2005 Defense Base Realignment and Closure Commission has rejected the Defense Department's recommendation to close the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine. That foiled the Navy's plan to send submarine work from there to the public yard in Hampton Roads.
"There is clearly going to be a dip in the workload for Norfolk Naval Shipyard, and the Navy is trying to sort out how they're going to accommodate that," said Carnevale of the shipbuilders council.
For now, the Navy will uphold a pledge to keep surface ships in private yards, Brooks said. T hat could change if the Navy can't meet a federal requirement that at least 50 percent of military maintenance be done in government depots.
"I don't see any situation, at least out over the next three to five years, that we would not be able to meet the 50-50 requirement," Brooks said.
In Brooks' view, the Navy is helping to stabilize the industry with its new multi ship, multi option maintenance contracts.
The approach focuses on predictability and spreading work across the waterfront through partnering. Shipyards compete to become the prime contractor for a class of ships over several years, but the winner must farm out at least 40 percent of the work to at least two others.
All four of the largest local yards have won at least one of the prime awards, and several are flush with work right now. BAE Systems Norfolk Ship Repair, for example, is the prime on three contracts to maintain destroyers, cruisers and amphibious warships - with an estimated value of slightly more than $1 billion over five years, the Navy says.
"With the MSMOs, you can keep a core work force and your skilled workers employed," said Bill Clifford, president and general manager of BAE Systems Norfolk. "It brings volume and stability that we didn't have."
In the decade since the Navy began awarding multi ship awards on the West Coast, the four repair yards on San Diego's waterfront have carved out special ty areas, becoming the "go-to" yards for those jobs.
A focus for BAE Systems' San Diego shipyard, for example, has been main pump overhauls on amphibious ships, said Robert Kilpatrick, president and general manager of the yard.
"We've probably done 40 to 50 over five or six years, and that learning curve has been really good for reducing costs for the Navy," Kilpatrick said.
Specializing also allowed the yards to target capital improvements to control overhead. "We'll buy a lot of new equipment to make our machine shop better," Kilpatrick said, "knowing that we've got the principal work for all the machinery on the waterfront."
Such teaming is occurring in Hampton Roads and could lead to more cooperation among rival yards as the process matures.
"It's some form of an informal consolidation because we are recognizing each other's strengths and using it to the advantage of the Navy," said Ron Ritter, senior vice president of Earl Industries.
Even so, the yards remain fierce competitors. MHI last month protested for the second time the Navy's award of a frigate multi ship contract to Metro Machine. After a Metro protest, the Navy re bid a contract now held by Earl Industries to maintain LSD and LPD amphibious ships.
"We're in this competition to see who can give the Navy the best bang for their buck," MHI's Brandt said. "I think that's healthy."
While the Navy's presence in Hampton Roads will continue to bring work, industry officials recognize the need to branch out.
For those that have done so, the jobs represent a sliver of revenue. But they have helped keep employment steady when there are no Navy ships. In today's economic climate, diversifying is critical, said Allen Walker, president of the shipbuilders council.
"The only way these yards are going to sustain their current capacity is through a combination of commercial and Navy work," Walker said. "That's how we keep these businesses intact; that's how we keep the industrial base intact."
Some of the yards are transferring shipyard expertise to other markets. Earl Industries, for example, has taken its specialty in hull and tank coatings and landed work blasting and painting power plants.
BAE Systems Norfolk has tapped the highly competitive cruise ship market. Clifford sees promise for more with the opening of a cruise terminal in downtown Norfolk.
"I look at that as a perfect opportunity," he said. "When I do a cruise ship in our dry dock, my package is blasting, painting and propulsion work. But think of all the materials and supplies and other people that are working inside the ship for the owner. It benefits the whole community."
Companies such as Colonna's are going after "brown fleet" boats, such as barges, tugs and dredging vessels.
MHI is targeting commercial cargo ships that bring goods into Hampton Roads - a potentially lucrative market, said Mike Gardner, an attorney with Troutman Sanders and a consultant for local shipyards.
It's still cheaper for the international vessels to do major overhauls in foreign ports, where government subsidies and lower wages keep costs down. But Gardner has helped local yards to bring in ships needing emergency repairs.
"Over the next 15 years, with the volume of ships, the quality of work here and efforts by the industry to reach out to these international operators, I think we'll see more of the routine maintenance, including dry docking, occurring here," Gardner said.
MHI is bullish enough on the future that it added a yard in Lamberts Point and spent $21 million to build a pier there in 2004. The company plans to install a dry dock, competing with three other local yards having a total of four dry docks.
"Our goal is to be the most competitive yard in the region," Brandt said.
In 2002, Metro Machine spent about $60 million on a 40,000-ton dry dock and other upgrades to accommodate the biggest ships of the Navy, its sole customer.
The Navy will remain Metro's top customer, Goldbach said, while the company looks to diversify.
"I think we're all at risk," he said. "You have to position for the long term as you survive the near term. There's no question in my mind that we're going to do that."